Cutting the Bull on the Sanford Victory

So the continued screeching over the Sanford victory made me pay attention enough to tease out a few facts.  I have been embargoing Politico ever since their bullying of College Politico, but this article on Sanford’s comeback is a much read.  And there is something that is very obviously going on between the lines of the story, which its author doesn’t quite articulate, making one wonder if he even saw it.

Let’s start with this fact:

Sanford completed his return from the political graveyard Tuesday night, easily dispatching Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in a deep red district that Mitt Romney won by nearly 20 percentage points.[...]

In the end, the nail-biter that late polls hinted at never materialized: Sanford crushed Colbert Busch, 54 percent to 45 percent.

And then there was this line:

In Colbert Busch, Sanford was running against a rookie opponent who made some rookie mistakes.

And then the reality of it snapped into place for me.   She was never really expected to win in the first place.  Remember, she was chosen as the Democratic candidate before the Republican candidate.  This is one of those places where the district leans so far against one party that they know they have very little chance to win, so they put up some kind of sad-sack up against the favored party every so often and hope for some bolt out of the blue might win the day, but mostly just to tie down the resources of the other side.  Meanwhile politicians with a real future tended to run for other offices or in other districts.

This is not to say that Busch never had any chance.  Sanford’s baggage did threaten to sink his candidacy, but there is nothing miraculous about a Republican winning by less than ten points in a district where Romney won by less than twenty.  In fact it suggests that the Republican party wasn’t terribly thrilled with him either.  This was his original Congressional district which he held for years before becoming Governor and then “Disgraced Ex-Governor” Sanford.  So residents remember him once representing them well.  He had local name recognition and he had the inherent Republicanism of the district.

Now, things might have been different if the Democrats knew he was going to be the nominee ahead of time (remember, Busch’s primary came first).  In that case, the Democrats might have recruited a person with a real future in politics and in all frankness that person might have won.  They could have done something like Manchin did in West Virginia, shooting a gun at a cap and trade bill...

...proving that he doesn’t like the Obama administration’s stance on coal or guns in one fell swoop.  Yes, it was deceptive advertising, but it worked.  And something like that might have worked against Sanford, especially given his baggage.  Once Sanford was chosen, a more savvy politician than Busch might have won the race.

And indeed it still might work against him.  He will be up for re-election next year and I suspect that the Democrats might still feel that his past might sink him and run someone with a chance against him—a conservative Democrat, or at least a Democrat who can fake being a conservative.  Republicans should seriously consider primarying Sanford, to keep him from losing a safe district.

But for all the screeching on the left (which yes, includes Meghan McCain), this is a bit like if Republicans raged at Democrats when Republicans lose in Massachusetts.  This really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to them if they really think about it.

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My wife and I have lost our jobs due to the harassment of convicted terrorist Brett Kimberlin, including an attempt to get us killed and to frame me for a crime carrying a sentence of up to ten years.  I know that claim sounds fantastic, but if you read starting here, you will see absolute proof of these claims using documentary and video evidence.  If you would like to help in the fight to hold Mr. Kimberlin accountable, please hit the Blogger’s Defense Team button on the right.  And thank you.

Follow me at Twitter @aaronworthing, mostly for snark and site updates.  And you can purchase my book (or borrow it for free if you have Amazon Prime), Archangel: A Novel of Alternate, Recent History here.  And you can read a little more about my novel, here.

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Disclaimer:

I have accused some people, particularly Brett Kimberlin, of reprehensible conduct.  In some cases, the conduct is even criminal.  In all cases, the only justice I want is through the appropriate legal process—such as the criminal justice system.  I do not want to see vigilante violence against any person or any threat of such violence.  This kind of conduct is not only morally wrong, but it is counter-productive.

In the particular case of Brett Kimberlin, I do not want you to even contact him.  Do not call him.  Do not write him a letter.  Do not write him an email.  Do not text-message him.  Do not engage in any kind of directed communication.  I say this in part because under Maryland law, that can quickly become harassment and I don’t want that to happen to him.

And for that matter, don’t go on his property.  Don’t sneak around and try to photograph him.  Frankly try not to even be within his field of vision.  Your behavior could quickly cross the line into harassment in that way too (not to mention trespass and other concerns).

And do not contact his organizations, either.  And most of all, leave his family alone.

The only exception to all that is that if you are reporting on this, there is of course nothing wrong with contacting him for things like his official response to any stories you might report.  And even then if he tells you to stop contacting him, obey that request.  That this is a key element in making out a harassment claim under Maryland law—that a person asks you to stop and you refuse.

And let me say something else.  In my heart of hearts, I don’t believe that any person supporting me has done any of the above.  But if any of you have, stop it, and if you haven’t don’t start.